When a community loses a grocery store, the immediate reaction is often: How do we recruit a new one?
That’s an important question. But communities should be asking another one much earlier: How do we keep the quality grocery stores and other community assets we already have?
Recently, I met with the mayor of a small town in a semi-rural county in Ohio. Local leaders were exploring the possibility of a food co-op, and I was asked to assess the market.
During my fieldwork, I found an independent grocer showing clear signs of distress. I reported my concerns to the mayor.
“Don’t let this store close,” I pleaded.
Unfortunately, intervention did not come in time.
This experience illustrates why grocery retention and grocery recruitment should go hand in hand. Economic development specialists, elected officials, community leaders, and foundations working to improve food access should consider both. Recruiting a new store may bring a ribbon cutting ceremony, but preserving an existing business can be just as important.
And this isn’t just an issue for low-income or low-access communities. It matters in rural towns and big cities alike.
As a former executive director of a community development corporation serving a community of 60,000, I’ve seen the value of identifying, supporting, and expanding community assets.
Invest early in what you value and in the positive change you want to create.
Why Grocery Retention Matters
A quality grocery store is much more than a place to buy food.
Good grocers, especially independent owners who seem to know everyone in town, often support local causes, donate food to families in need, and sponsor community activities such as Little League.
But who checks in on these owners to see how business is going? Who asks whether rising costs, changing market conditions, or nearby competition are putting the store at risk?
Good grocery stores provide access to fresh, healthy food. They also create jobs and career opportunities, generate economic activity, and bring customers to surrounding businesses. They can contribute to a stronger neighborhood retail environment and support community health.
When a grocery store closes, residents may have to travel farther for food, employees can lose jobs and benefits, nearby businesses may lose customer traffic, and other retailers may reassess the market.
A closure does not automatically mean a community cannot support a grocery store. There may be other factors, including poor management, inadequate financing, high-interest loans, rising operating costs, or owners nearing retirement without a succession plan.
Communities need to understand why a store is struggling before deciding what to do next.
Retail Attracts Retail: Consider the Bigger Market
When a community wants to attract a new grocery store or food co-op, it’s important to look beyond that one potential business. Is the broader market positioned to support healthy, balanced grocery offerings? What conditions would help quality retailers succeed?
Good grocers are often attracted to locations where other good grocers already operate.
It’s a Yogi Berra conundrum.
Good grocers can become concerned when nearby competitors close. Store openings and closures send signals, correctly or incorrectly, about what is possible in a market. A healthy food marketplace is typically not one where only one decent grocery store remains.
As I’m fond of saying, retail attracts retail, and like attracts like, in either a positive or negative
direction.
This is where retail agglomeration and the MG Snowball Effect become important. Quality retailers can benefit from being near complementary businesses, such as pharmacies, restaurants, banks, healthcare providers, and other retailers. Together, they can create a stronger shopping destination.
The opposite can happen, too. If quality retailers leave and fringe retailers become increasingly dominant, the broader commercial environment may become less attractive to quality grocers.
Learn more in What Is Retail Agglomeration? Why Great Retailers Rarely Stand Alone.
Communities considering a new grocery investment should also assess how it could affect existing food stores. Meet with grocers privately, listen to their concerns, and consider the potential impact on the entire market.
If taxpayer dollars are involved, a realistic sustainability plan is essential. The return on investment should consider not only economic activity but also healthy food access, potential diet-related health benefits, and other community outcomes.
This brings to mind New York City and its plans for multiple government-supported grocery stores. We’re rooting for you, NYC! Do it right!
How to Identify a Grocery Store at Risk of Closing
Warning signs can show up in market data and inside the store itself.
Our firm models food stores across a local marketplace, accounting for factors such as grocery purchasing power, competition, and other conditions that may affect sales. This helps us assess potential closures and identify which ones could have the greatest impact on food access and the broader market.
Fieldwork matters, too. When I visit a store, I shop there, interact with customers and staff, make purchases, and return on different days and at different times. It helps me understand the customer experience while supporting the business.
Here are some signs worth paying attention to:
- Product availability: Fresh foods or shelf-stable products are frequently missing or out of stock.
- Customer activity: Customer traffic appears low, or the store has noticeably changed its checkout operations.
- Store conditions: Maintenance is being deferred, boxes remain on the floor, or displays look neglected.
- Staff morale: Employees appear stressed or disengaged.
- Clearance merchandise: Excessive markdowns may signal an effort to move aging inventory.
- Equipment and food safety: Check expiration dates and whether coolers and freezers appear to be working properly.
No single sign proves a store is headed for closure. The goal is to understand the full picture, identify potential problems early, and determine whether realistic solutions exist.
A Real World Lesson: When Intervention Comes Too Late
Consider the family-owned Ohio grocery store I mentioned earlier. It had operated for 30 years and employed 29 local residents.
During my assessment, I saw signs of distress, including deferred maintenance and fewer fresh products: no more organic cilantro! Yet the store still had staff at the meat, seafood, and bakery counters, along with several open checkout registers. Employees had not been laid off.
The owners operated seven grocery stores, and the other six were doing well. This particular store was struggling in a market where the population was declining and dollar stores had opened nearby.
A few months after my visit, the owners faced what they considered a sharp increase in their utility bill. I later heard that the increase was the straw that broke the camel’s back. The business was already under pressure, and the owners were experiencing burnout.
They decided to close the store. Within a month, they were liquidating merchandise that could not be transferred to their other locations and selling off equipment.
Through a news article about the closure, I learned that many of the employees had been full-time workers with benefits.
Today, the former grocery store is an empty space in a small shopping center where it once served as an anchor.
The town lost 29 jobs, tax revenue, grocery access, and a business that supported other community causes.
Could the store have been saved? Maybe. But the question came too late, help did not come, and no one will ever really know for sure.
The lesson is not that every struggling grocery store should receive public funding. Sometimes a store cannot be saved, and support must be evaluated carefully. Any subsidy should have a clear timeframe, realistic goals, and a cost-benefit analysis.
The lesson is to investigate early, before a community loses an asset that may have been worth protecting.
Preserve the Assets You Have
Communities should continue recruiting quality grocery stores when there is a demonstrated need and a viable opportunity. But recruitment should not be the only strategy.
Don’t just recruit new stores. Preserve the assets you have.
That means getting to know existing grocers, monitoring market conditions, understanding their challenges, and identifying practical ways to help before closure becomes inevitable. It also means considering how individual stores fit into the larger retail environment.
Sometimes the most important grocery store to save is the one already serving the community.
How Mari Gallagher Research & Consulting Group Can Help
Mari Gallagher Research & Consulting Group helps communities evaluate grocery markets, assess potential store closures, identify opportunities for new grocers, and develop strategies for grocery attraction and retention.
Mari is a former community development practitioner who developed a $75 million shopping center anchored by a grocery store. The project also included a community construction job training program.
Our team can help communities:
- Identify stores that may be at risk of closing.
- Assess local grocery markets and surrounding retail conditions.
- Evaluate potential locations for new grocery stores.
- Understand how proposed investments may affect existing retailers.
- Speak confidentially with grocers about their challenges.
- Develop practical strategies and return-on-investment analyses that consider economic
activity, healthy food access, and community well-being.
If your community is concerned about losing a quality grocery store or wants to take a proactive approach to protecting the grocery assets it already has, let’s talk.
Contact Mari directly at Mari@MariGallagher.com to discuss your community, market, or grocery retention needs.
I have long advocated for high-quality, hyperlocal data, and analysis.
About Mari Gallagher
Mari Gallagher is the founder and principal of Mari Gallagher Research & Consulting Group and a nationally recognized expert in food access, neighborhood retail, grocery market analysis, hyperlocal data, community development, food insecurity, and community health impacts. Her work helped bring attention to food deserts at the congressional level and contributed to efforts to address the issue through the Farm Bill.